Implications of Frailty in COVID-19.

As the global coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory distress syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to cause higher mortality and hospitalization rates among older adults, strategies such as frailty screening have been suggested for resource allocation and clinical management. Frailty is a physiologic condition characterized by a decreased reserve to stressors and is associated with disability, hospitalization, and death. Measuring frailty can be a useful tool to determine the risk and prognosis of COVID-19 patients in the acute setting, and to provide higher quality of care for vulnerable individuals in the outpatient setting. A literature review was conducted to examine current research regarding frailty and COVID-19. Frailty can inform holistic care of COVID-19 patients, and further investigation is needed to elucidate how measuring frailty should guide treatment and prevention of COVID-19.

[Age-specific regional characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in 2021]. / A COVID­19-halandóság életkor-specifikus regionális jellemzoi 2021-ben.

INTRODUCTION: In most countries, COVID-19 mortality increases exponentially with age, but the growth rate varies considerably between countries. The different progression of mortality may reflect differences in population health, the quality of health care or coding practices. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we investigated differences in age-specific county characteristics of COVID-19 mortality in the second year of the pandemic. METHOD: Age-specific patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality were estimated according to county level and sex using a Gompertz function with multilevel models. RESULTS: The Gompertz function is suitable for describing age patterns of COVID-19 adult mortality at county level. We did not find significant differences in the age progression of mortality between counties, but there were significant spatial differences in the level of mortality. The mortality level showed a relationship with socioeconomic and health care indicators with the expected sign, but with different strengths. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 resulted in a decline in life expectancy in Hungary not seen since World War II. The study highlights the importance of healthcare in addition to social vulnerability. It also points out that understanding age patterns will help to mitigate the consequences of the epidemic. Orv Hetil. 2023; 164(17): 643-650.

The effects of cash transfers on adult and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in 27 countries.

The expected year-on-year intrinsic mortality variations/changes are largely overlooked in the existing research when estimating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality patterns. To fill this gap, this study provides a new assessment of the loss of life expectancy caused by COVID-19 in 27 countries considering both the actual and the expected changes in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020. Life expectancy in 2020 and the expected life expectancy in the absence of COVID-19 are estimated using the Lee-Carter model and data primarily from the Human Mortality Database. The results show that life expectancy in 21 of the 27 countries was expected to increase in 2020 had COVID-19 not occurred. By considering the expected mortality changes between 2019 and 2020, the study shows that, on average, the loss of life expectancy among the 27 countries in 2020 amounted to 1.33 year (95% CI 1.29-1.37) at age 15 and 0.91 years (95% CI 0.88-0.94) at age 65. Our results suggest that if the year-on-year intrinsic variations/changes in mortality were considered, the effects of COVID-19 on mortality are more profound than previously understood. This is particularly prominent for countries experiencing greater life expectancy increase in recent years.

Estimating Overall and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Methodological Approaches Compared.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, excess mortality has been reported worldwide, but its magnitude has varied depending on methodological differences that hinder between-study comparability. Our aim was to estimate variability attributable to different methods, focusing on specific causes of death with different pre-pandemic trends. Monthly mortality figures observed in 2020 in the Veneto Region (Italy) were compared with those forecasted using: (1) 2018-2019 monthly average number of deaths; (2) 2015-2019 monthly average age-standardized mortality rates; (3) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models; (4) Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) models. We analyzed deaths due to all-causes, circulatory diseases, cancer, and neurologic/mental disorders. Excess all-cause mortality estimates in 2020 across the four approaches were: +17.2% (2018-2019 average number of deaths), +9.5% (five-year average age-standardized rates), +15.2% (SARIMA), and +15.7% (GEE). For circulatory diseases (strong pre-pandemic decreasing trend), estimates were +7.1%, -4.4%, +8.4%, and +7.2%, respectively. Cancer mortality showed no relevant variations (ranging from -1.6% to -0.1%), except for the simple comparison of age-standardized mortality rates (-5.5%). The neurologic/mental disorders (with a pre-pandemic growing trend) estimated excess corresponded to +4.0%/+5.1% based on the first two approaches, while no major change could be detected based on the SARIMA and GEE models (-1.3%/+0.3%). The magnitude of excess mortality varied largely based on the methods applied to forecast mortality figures. The comparison with average age-standardized mortality rates in the previous five years diverged from the other approaches due to the lack of control over pre-existing trends. Differences across other methods were more limited, with GEE models probably representing the most versatile option.

US Racial-Ethnic Mortality Gap Adjusted for Population Structure.

BACKGROUND: US racial-ethnic mortality disparities are well documented and central to debates on social inequalities in health. Standard measures, such as life expectancy or years of life lost, are based on synthetic populations and do not account for the real underlying populations experiencing the inequalities. METHODS: We analyze US mortality disparities comparing Asian Americans, Blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans/Alaska Natives to Whites using 2019 CDC and NCHS data, using a novel approach that estimates the mortality gap, adjusted for population structure by accounting for real-population exposures. This measure is tailored for analyses where age structures are fundamental, not merely a confounder. We highlight the magnitude of inequalities by comparing the population structure-adjusted mortality gap against standard metrics' estimates of loss of life due to leading causes. RESULTS: Based on the population structure-adjusted mortality gap, Black and Native American mortality disadvantage exceedsmortality from circulatory diseases. The disadvantage is 72% among Blacks (men: 47%, women: 98%) and 65% among Native Americans (men: 45%, women: 92%), larger than life expectancy measured disadvantage. In contrast, estimated advantages for Asian Americans are over three times (men: 176%, women: 283%) and, for Hispanics, two times (men: 123%; women: 190%) larger than those based on life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality inequalities based on standard metrics' synthetic populations can differ markedly from estimates of the population structure-adjusted mortality gap. We demonstrate that standard metrics underestimate racial-ethnic disparities through disregarding actual population age structures. Exposure-corrected measures of inequality may better inform health policies around allocation of scarce resources.

Multimorbidity and clinical results of a pediatric population with suspected COVID-19 treated in a Mexican hospital / Multimorbilidad y resultados clínicos de una población pediátrica con sospecha de COVID-19 atendida en un hospital mexicano

Resumen Introducción: Datos de varios países del mundo sugieren que los niños con COVID-19 podrían presentar síntomas diferentes y menos graves que los adultos. Sin embargo, los patrones epidemiológicos y clínicos en este grupo poblacional son poco claros. Métodos: El presente es un estudio observacional, con una caracterización inicial transversal-analítica, y con un componente longitudinal o de seguimiento a un grupo de menores con sospecha y/o diagnóstico confirmado de COVID-19, que presentaron desenlaces como mejoría, traslado a un nivel superior de atención o defunción por sintomatología respiratoria. Los niños recibieron atención médica en el Hospital General Regional con Medicina Familiar N.° 1 (HGR C/MF N.° 1), y se les realizó prueba de reacción en cadena de la polimerasa en tiempo real (RT-PCR). Resultados: Se estudiaron 98 niños como casos sospechosos para COVID-19, a quienes se les realizó RT-PCR. Del total, 24 resultaron positivos y 74 fueron negativos. La mediana de edad de los participantes fue 64,4 meses (0 a 203 meses), 55 menores eran de sexo masculino, 59 niños tuvieron manejo ambulatorio, y de estos, 14 presentaron resultado positivo. Entre los que requirieron manejo hospitalario (39), 10 niños dieron positivo para SARS-CoV-2, 84,7% alcanzaron mejoría y fueron dados de alta, 4 fueron trasladados a hospitales de nivel superior de atención. De los 98 niños en estudio, 11 fallecieron, 7 con resultado negativo y 4 con resultado positivo para SARS-CoV-2. Conclusiones: Los principales síntomas de la población pediátrica en este estudio fueron fiebre, tos y malestar general. De los niños que fallecieron, 4 presentaron resultado positivo para SARS-CoV-2, no obstante, estos presentaban otras comorbilidades.

Abstract Introduction: Data from several countries around the world suggest that children with COVID-19 may present different and less severe symptoms than adults. However, the epidemiological and clinical patterns in this population group have been unclear. Methods: This is an observational study, with an initial cross-analytical characterization, and with a longitudinal or follow-up component in a group of minors with suspected and or confirmed case of COVID-19, which have outcomes such as improvement, transfer to a higher level of care or death due to respiratory symptoms. The children received medical attention at the Regional General Hospital with Family Medicine No 1 (HGR C / MF No 1), and underwent a Real Time Polymerase Chain Reaction test (RT-PCR). Results: 98 children were studied as suspected cases for COVID-19, who underwent RT-PCR. Of the total 24 were positive and 74 were negatives. The median age was 64.4 months (0 to 203 months), 55 minors were male, 59 children had outpatient management, and of these, 14 had a positive result. Among those who required hospital management (39), 10 children were positive for SARS-CoV-2, 84.7% achieved improvement and were discharged, and four were transferred to a higher level of care hospital. Of the 98 children in the study, 11 died, seven had a negative result and four a positive result for SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions: The main symptoms of the pediatric population in this study were fever, cough and general discomfort. Four of those who died had a positive result for SARS-CoV-2, however, they had other comorbidities.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Ukrainian mortality, 2020-2021.

The mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine has remained incomplete. We estimated excess deaths associated with the pandemic in Ukraine during 2020 and 2021. Excess deaths may be attributed directly to SARS-CoV-2 infection or indirectly to deaths associated with social and economic upheavals resulting from the pandemic. Data on all deaths registered in government-controlled Ukraine from 2016-2021 (N = 3,657,475) were utilized. Using a model-based approach, we predicted monthly excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. We estimated 47,578 excess deaths in 2020 as a whole (7.71% of all recorded deaths). This figure reflects both positive (higher than expected) excess deaths from June-December and negative (lower than expected) deaths in January and March-May. From June-December 2020, we estimated 59,363 excess deaths (15.75% of all recorded deaths in those months). In 2021, we estimated 150,049 excess deaths (21.01% of all recorded deaths). Positive excess deaths were detected across age groups even groups younger than 40 years. The number of excess deaths exceeded that of deaths with COVID-19 coded on the death certificate by more than two-fold in 2020, but that difference narrowed in 2021. We furthermore provide provisional estimates of the effect of low vaccine coverage on excess deaths in 2021 drawing from European cross-national evidence and provisional estimates of the hypothetical evolution of the pandemic in 2022 to serve as a rough basis for future studies analyzing the joint impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion on Ukrainian demography.

Validating the InterVA-5 cause of death analytical tool: using mortality data from the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System in Papua New Guinea.

OBJECTIVE: InterVA-5 is a new version of an analytical tool for cause of death (COD) analysis at the population level. This study validates the InterVA-5 against the medical review method, using mortality data in Papua New Guinea (PNG). DESIGN AND SETTING: This study used mortality data collected from January 2018 to December 2020 in eight surveillance sites of the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System (CHESS), established by the PNG Institute of Medical Research in six major provinces. METHODS: The CHESS demographic team conducted verbal autopsy (VA) interviews with close relatives of the deceased, who died in communities within the catchment areas of CHESS, using the WHO 2016 VA instrument. COD of the deceased was assigned by InterVA-5 tool, and independently certified by the medical team. Consistency, difference and agreement between the InterVA-5 model and medical review were assessed. Sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of the InterVA-5 tool were calculated with reference to the medical review method. RESULTS: Specific COD of 926 deceased people was included in the validation. Agreement between the InterVA-5 tool and medical review was high (kappa test: 0.72; p<0.01). Sensitivity and PPV of the InterVA-5 were 93% and 72% for cardiovascular diseases, 84% and 86% for neoplasms, 65% and 100% for other chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and 78% and 64% for maternal deaths, respectively. For infectious diseases and external CODs, sensitivity and PPV of the InterVA-5 were 94% and 90%, respectively, while the sensitivity and PPV of the medical review method were both 54% for classifying neonatal CODs. CONCLUSION: The InterVA-5 tool works well in the PNG context to assign specific CODs of infectious diseases, cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms and injuries. Further improvements with respect to chronic NCDs, maternal deaths and neonatal deaths are needed.

Excess Mortality at Veterans Health Administration Facilities During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

IMPORTANCE: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in excess mortality among the general US population and at Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities. It is critical to understand the characteristics of facilities that experienced the highest and lowest pandemic-related mortality to inform future mitigation efforts. OBJECTIVE: To identify facility-level excess mortality during the pandemic and to correlate these estimates with facility characteristics and community-wide rates of COVID-19 burden. DESIGN: We used pre-pandemic data to estimate mortality risk prediction models using 5-fold cross-validation and Poisson quasi-likelihood regression. We then estimated excess mortality and observed versus expected (O/E) mortality ratios by the VHA facility from March to December 2020. We examined facility-level characteristics by excess mortality quartile. PARTICIPANTS: Overall, there were 11.4 million VHA enrollees during 2016 and 2020. MAIN MEASURES: Facility-level O/E mortality ratios and excess all-cause mortality. RESULT: VHA-enrolled veterans experienced 52,038 excess deaths from March to December 2020, equating to 16.8% excess mortality. Facility-specific rates ranged from -5.5% to +63.7%. Facilities in the lowest quartile for excess mortality experienced fewer COVID-19 deaths (0.7-1.51, P <0.001) and cases (52.0-63.0, P =0.002) per 1,000 population compared with the highest quartile. The highest quartile facilities had more hospital beds (276.7-187.6, P =0.024) and a higher percent change in the share of visits conducted via telehealth from 2019 to 2020 (183%-133%, P <0.008). CONCLUSIONS: There was a large variation in mortality across VHA facilities during the pandemic, which was only partially explained by the local COVID-19 burden. Our work provides a framework for large health care systems to identify changes in facility-level mortality during a public health emergency.

Provisional Mortality Data - United States, 2022.

The National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using U.S. death certificate data. Because of the time needed to investigate certain causes of death and to process and review death data, final annual mortality data for a given year are typically released 11 months after the end of the calendar year. Provisional data, which are based on the current flow of death certificate data to NCHS, provide an early estimate of deaths, before the release of final data. NVSS routinely releases provisional mortality data for all causes of death and for deaths associated with COVID-19.* This report is an overview of provisional U.S. mortality data for 2022, including a comparison with 2021 death rates. In 2022, approximately 3,273,705 deaths† occurred in the United States. The estimated 2022 age-adjusted death rate decreased by 5.3%, from 879.7 per 100,000 persons in 2021 to 832.8. COVID-19 was reported as the underlying cause or a contributing cause in an estimated 244,986 (7.5%) of those deaths (61.3 deaths per 100,000). The highest overall death rates by age, race and ethnicity, and sex occurred among persons who were aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN), non-Hispanic Black or African American (Black), and male. In 2022, the four leading causes of death were heart disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, and COVID-19. Provisional death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends and can guide public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing mortality, including deaths directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 Mortality Update - United States, 2022.

The National Center for Health Statistics' (NCHS) National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) collects and reports annual mortality statistics using U.S. death certificate data. Provisional data, which are based on the current flow of death certificate data to NCHS, provide an early estimate of deaths before the release of final data.* This report summarizes provisional U.S. COVID-19 death data for 2022. In 2022, COVID-19 was the underlying (primary) or contributing cause in the chain of events leading to 244,986 deaths† that occurred in the United States. During 2021-2022, the estimated age-adjusted COVID-19-associated death rate decreased 47%, from 115.6 to 61.3 per 100,000 persons. COVID-19 death rates were highest among persons aged ≥85 years, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations, and males. In 76% of deaths with COVID-19 listed on the death certificate, COVID-19 was listed as the underlying cause of death. In the remaining 24% of COVID-19 deaths, COVID-19 was a contributing cause. As in 2020 and 2021, during 2022, the most common location of COVID-19 deaths was a hospital inpatient setting (59%). However, an increasing percentage occurred in the decedent's home (15%), or a nursing home or long-term care facility (14%).§ Provisional COVID-19 death estimates provide an early indication of shifts in mortality trends and can help guide public health policies and interventions aimed at reducing COVID-19-associated mortality.

The global COVID-19 mortality cost report card: 2020, 2021, and 2022.

The United States is the country with the greatest number of COVID-19 deaths in 2020, 2021, and 2022. Both the U.S. and the world exhibited an increase in the number of COVID-related deaths in 2021 and a decrease in 2022. The U.S. share of COVID-related deaths declined in 2021 but rose in 2022, leading to a cumulative total U.S. mortality share of 17%. The extent to which the U.S. is an outlier is even greater based on the monetized mortality costs. Using the value of a statistical life to monetize the mortality impact increases the performance gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world because of the high mortality risk valuation in the U.S. The worldwide COVID-19 mortality cost was $29.4 trillion as of January 1, 2023, with a U.S. share of $12.7 trillion, or 43% of the global total. Throughout the COVID pandemic, the U.S. mortality cost share has been in the narrow range of 43% to 45%. Given the high U.S. value of a statistical life, these monetized mortality cost values are more than double the U.S. share of COVID-related deaths. The U.S. mortality cost share is greater if the value of a statistical life declines more than proportionally with income for low-income countries.

High temperature, COVID-19, and mortality excess in the 2022 summer: a cohort study on data from Italian surveillances.

We aimed to assess whether the effect of high temperature on mortality differed in COVID-19 survivors and naive. We used data from the summer mortality and COVID-19 surveillances. We found 3.8 % excess risk in 2022 summer, compared to 2015-2019, while 20 % in the last fortnight of July, the period with the highest temperature. The increase in mortality rates during the second fortnight of July was higher among naïve compared to COVID-19 survivors. The time series analysis confirmed the association between temperatures and mortality in naïve people, showing an 8 % excess (95%CI 2 to 13) for a one-degree increase of Thom Discomfort Index while in COVID-19 survivors the effect was almost null with -1 % (95%CI -9 to 9). Our results suggest that the high fatality rate of COVID-19 in fragile people has decreased the proportion of susceptible people who can be affected by the extremely high temperature.

Association of socio-economic deprivation with COVID-19 incidence and fatality during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy: lessons learned from a local register-based study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has been characterised by its global and rapid spread, with high infection, hospitalisation, and mortality rates worldwide. However, the course of the pandemic showed differences in chronology and intensity in different geographical areas and countries, probably due to a multitude of factors. Among these, socio-economic deprivation has been supposed to play a substantial role, although available evidence is not fully in agreement. Our study aimed to assess incidence and fatality rates of COVID-19 across the levels of socio-economic deprivation during the first epidemic wave (March-May 2020) in the Italian Province of Foggia, Apulia Region. METHODS: Based on the data of the regional active surveillance platform, we performed a retrospective epidemiological study among all COVID-19 confirmed cases that occurred in the Apulian District of Foggia, Italy, from March 1st to May 5th, 2020. Geocoded addresses were linked to the individual Census Tract (CT) of residence. Effects of socio-economic condition were calculated by means of the Socio-Economic and Health-related Deprivation Index (SEHDI) on COVID-19 incidence and fatality. RESULTS: Of the 1054 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 537 (50.9%) were men, 682 (64.7%) were 0-64 years old, and 338 (32.1%) had pre-existing comorbidities. COVID-19 incidence was higher in the less deprived areas (p < 0.05), independently on age. The level of socio-economic deprivation did not show a significant impact on the vital status, while a higher fatality was observed in male cases (p < 0.001), cases > 65 years (p < 0.001), cases having a connection with a nursing home (p < 0.05) or having at least 1 comorbidity (p < 0.001). On the other hand, a significant protection for healthcare workers was apparent (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that deprivation alone does not affect COVID-19 incidence and fatality burden, suggesting that the burden of disease is driven by a complexity of factors not yet fully understood. Better knowledge is needed to identify subgroups at higher risk and implement effective preventive strategies.

Using an online calculator to describe excess mortality in the Philippines during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: Excess mortality is an indicator of the impact of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aims to describe excess mortality in the Philippines from January 2020 to December 2021 using an online all-cause mortality and excess mortality calculator. Methods: All-cause mortality data sets from 2015 to 2021 from the Philippine Statistics Authority were obtained and analysed using the World Health Organization Western Pacific Regional Office All-Cause Mortality Calculator. Expected mortality, excess mortality and P-scores were obtained using two models, 5-year averages and negative binomial regression, for total deaths and by administrative region. Results: Reported national all-cause mortality exceeded the expected mortality in August 2020 and from January to November 2021, peaking in September 2021 at 104 per 100 000. Total excess mortality using negative binomial regression was -13 900 deaths in 2020 and 212 000 deaths in 2021, peaking in September 2021. P-scores were -2% in 2020 and 33% in 2021, again peaking in September 2021 at 114%. Reported COVID-19 deaths accounted for 20% of excess deaths in 2021. In 2020, consistently high P-scores were recorded in the National Capital Region from July to September and in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao from June to July. In 2021, most regions recorded high P-scores from June to October. Discussion: Tracking excess mortality using a robust, accessible and standardized online tool provided a comprehensive assessment of the direct and indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines. Furthermore, analysis by administrative region highlighted the key regions disproportionately affected by the pandemic, information that may not have been fully captured from routine COVID-19 surveillance.

The New Crisis of Increasing All-Cause Mortality in US Children and Adolescents.

This Viewpoint discusses increased rates in pediatric mortality by age and cause between 1999 and 2021.